tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9856215813767528432024-02-20T04:10:52.716-08:00Heather on HockeyOilfanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02868706219353759378noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-985621581376752843.post-68201694763569158662016-07-04T21:20:00.000-07:002016-07-04T21:20:20.216-07:00Are they Crazy or is it Just Me?<h2>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "times"; font-size: 16pt; font-weight: normal;">Oh, Crap the Oilers signed Milan Lucic to a 7-year,
42 million-dollar deal they are going to regret the last 2 years of that contract! This was the common refrain from Oiler fans and around the league when
the news broke. These shouts and concerns were being voiced even before
he signed the deal in Edmonton.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Though
this was not the only long term deal signed on July 1st, Andrew Ladd, Kyle
Okposo, Loui Ericsson, and Frans Neilson all signed deals for either 6 or 7 years. </span><br />
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "times"; font-size: 16pt; font-weight: normal;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: times; font-size: 16pt; font-weight: normal;">So this prompts some questions. Why would they be
willing to take this risk? Are all the General Managers just crazy? The answer
most fans give is “hell yeah!” Hold on now, there is actually another answer
and it is simply cost analysis. Hockey is a business, and general
managers feel that the benefits outweigh the risks.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "times"; font-size: 16pt; font-weight: normal;">Lets first look at the risks associated with
signing a free agent to a long-term deal. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<ul>
<li><span style="font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "wingdings"; font-size: 16pt; text-indent: -18pt;">v<span style="font-family: "times new roman"; font-size: 7pt; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "times"; font-size: 16pt; text-indent: -18pt;">Risk
of injury - as players age and the wear and tear of the body increases the risk
of injury becomes more common.</span></span></li>
<li><span style="font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "times"; font-size: 16pt;"> </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "wingdings"; font-size: 16pt; text-indent: -18pt;">v<span style="font-family: "times new roman"; font-size: 7pt; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "times"; font-size: 16pt; text-indent: -18pt;">Reduced
Point Production – There is fear that the free agents are signed at an age
where they may have already reached their peak. In today’s NHL this comes at an earlier
age. </span></span></li>
<li><span style="font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "wingdings"; font-size: 16pt; text-indent: -18pt;">v<span style="font-family: "times new roman"; font-size: 7pt; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "times"; font-size: 16pt; text-indent: -18pt;">The
Diminished Asset - the team may not be able to trade this player because that
production is so low. They will either be saddled with the cap hit, or
trade the player for a reduced price, or have to include an asset to dump the
contract.</span><span style="font-family: "times"; font-size: 16pt;"> </span></span></li>
</ul>
<br />
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<span style="font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "times"; font-size: 16.0pt;">Obviously all of these are a risk are a concern and
some might happen, none may happen, or all may happen. The key words
though are might and maybe. General Managers are willing to take this
risk because of the benefits the player provides. Lets look at these
benefits.</span><span style="font-family: "times"; font-size: 16pt;"> </span></span></div>
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<ul>
<li><span style="font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "wingdings"; font-size: 16pt; text-indent: -18pt;">v<span style="font-family: "times new roman"; font-size: 7pt; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "times"; font-size: 16pt; text-indent: -18pt;">They
don't have to draft and develop the player. Using Lucic as an example the
Oilers can put him into the lineup, and immediately on the 1st line. A
player like Lucic is plug and play. They
didn't have to wait, they already know what type of player he is and they
didn't have to take the risk that he doesn't develop. </span></span></li>
<li><span style="font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "wingdings"; font-size: 16pt; text-indent: -18pt;">v<span style="font-family: "times new roman"; font-size: 7pt; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "times"; font-size: 16pt; text-indent: -18pt;">They
didn't have to trade an asset to get the player. Trading for a 55 point
player is going to come at a price, it may mean robbing Peter to pay Paul, or
using a lessor player to fill the hole you created elsewhere.</span></span></li>
<li><span style="font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "times"; font-size: 16pt;"> </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "wingdings"; font-size: 16pt; text-indent: -18pt;">v<span style="font-family: "times new roman"; font-size: 7pt; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "times"; font-size: 16pt; text-indent: -18pt;">It's
the market price. Multiple teams were willing to sign Lucic for 7 years.
If you don't play the game someone else will.</span><span style="font-family: "times"; font-size: 16pt;"> </span></span></li>
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<br />
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "times"; font-size: 16pt; font-weight: normal;">The player himself may also mitigate the risk.
Let’s use Lucic as an example:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "wingdings"; font-size: 16.0pt;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">v<span style="font-family: "times new roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-style: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "times"; font-size: 16.0pt;">Lucic
has never had a significant injury - he does play a game that is considered
more high risk but injuries have never been a concern.</span><span style="font-family: "times"; font-size: 16pt;"> </span></span></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-left: 40.0pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo3; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "wingdings"; font-size: 16.0pt;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">v<span style="font-family: "times new roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-style: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "times"; font-size: 16.0pt;">Lucic
keeps himself in great shape, he is known for being physically fit and works
hard in the off-season and during the season to keep himself that way.</span><span style="font-family: "times"; font-size: 16pt;"> </span></span></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-left: 40.0pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo3; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "wingdings"; font-size: 16.0pt;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">v<span style="font-family: "times new roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-style: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "times"; font-size: 16.0pt;">Lucic
eats properly - Peter Chiarelli noted this, during his press conference. I don'
t think I need to explain that eating properly is going to decrease the risk of
the body wearing down and reduce the effect of aging on the body.</span></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "times"; font-size: 16pt; font-weight: normal;">Obviously there is risk, but they are all <i>mights
and maybes. </i>The benefits are all real; there are no mights and
maybes. The team didn't have to develop the player, they didn't have to
trade an asset and it is a certainly that another team would have signed Milan
Lucic. Lucic is taking the proper steps to take care of his body.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "times"; font-size: 16pt; font-weight: normal;">We would probably agree that paying any hockey
player 7 million dollars is crazy. In weighing the risks and the
benefits, Peter Chiarelli paid no more than market value in today’s NHL. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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Oilfanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02868706219353759378noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-985621581376752843.post-26046689853374788652016-07-03T22:07:00.000-07:002016-07-03T22:23:27.623-07:00Peter Chiarelli: The very definition of Bold.<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: large;"><span lang="EN-US">Flashback: April 15th, 2013 - Craig Mactavish is
hired as the new Oilers General Manager and he made these now infamous
comments, </span><span lang="EN-US">“I'm an impatient guy,” he said he would “bring that impatience to
this situation. I think we’re at the stage, in terms of the cycle of our hockey
club right now, <b>that we have to do some bold things. We have to expose
ourselves to some semblance of risk, to try and move the team forward in a
rapid fashion.”</b></span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: large;"><span lang="EN-US">Ultimately his reign as GM was not bold but tired - not bold but weak
- not bold but timid. His moves were safe and like Steve Tambellini before him,
the team did not move forward it stagnated.</span><span lang="EN-US"> </span>Looking back as Oiler fans, we often laugh at that quote with
derision. We mock it but we also demand it. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: large;"><span lang="EN-US">Flashback: April 23, 2015 - The Oilers hire Peter Chiarelli as GM.
These were his comments at the time. </span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: large;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #262626;">"There is a strong, young core here with good complementary
players," said Peter Chiarelli. "I hope to bring it to the next level
with a measured approach."</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: large;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #262626;">For part of a year he followed that measured approach, he watched,
he assessed, and not surprisingly, this team performed exactly as it
had for 9 years. There were some flashes, but alas a 28th
place finish. His assessment was as obvious to long-suffering Oiler
fans as the fact there will be snow in Edmonton this winter. The team was easy to play against and offered little resistance. The forward mix
had all the same elements. The defence was terrible.</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: large;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #262626;">During the season he made changes to change the mix, adding
Patrick Maroon and Zach Kassian, but nothing new on the defence. In the
off-season he had added Andrej Sekera and Griffin<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Reinhart. Sekera was a good move, not a
bold one and Reinhart certainly did not make the roster as predicted.
The jury is still out with the expansion draft looming ahead.</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: large;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #262626;">Rumours of Chiarelli trying to add a top pairing dman were
rampant from the trade deadline on and into the summer. Chiarelli
admitted that he would be willing to trade one of these six million dollar men
to make it happen. By the summer, we all knew that one of them were
moving and assumed that this would get not just a top pairing dman, but if<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Taylor Hall were traded an elite number 1
dman. There was no way they would trade him if that was not available. </span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: large;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #262626;">Oh, there were lots of subtle hints this wasn't the
case. The media, and not just the Edmonton media, warned us
that there wasn't much available. Teams were asking for Hall and the
return wasn't what we would expect. I thought to myself, the media
doesn't always paint a rosy picture for Edmonton, and assumed they were exaggerating.</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: large;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #262626;">Those subtle whispers became shouts days and weeks before Hall
was ultimately traded. Bob Stauffer intimated that the Oilers might have
to trade Hall and make a bad trade in order to move forward. Ryan Rishaug
started hinting the same thing, even telling Jason Gregor that this would
be the price of moving forward. National media were saying similar
things, the market wasn't strong, the Oilers were dealing from a position of
weakness, as everyone knew what they wanted, and the demand was more than the
supply.</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: large;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="color: #262626;">Then the Subban rumour bolts out of Montreal, the Habs might
trade Subban and the Oilers were interested. The rumoured price from
many sources; Leon Draisaitl, the 4th pick, Darnell Nurse or Oscar Klefbom and two or more significant
pieces. Many Oiler fans argued back and forth whether they would pay this
price. My heart sunk, this for me was confirmation of what the media was
saying. Hall wasn't going to get an elite dman and from that moment I
knew it. In fact I said on twitter "this is proof of what the market
really is for an elite dman." I knew Hall might move. For if the media was right about
this, they were probably right about the rest too.</span></span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: large;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #262626;">Bob Stauffer's hints became stronger, fans told themselves
he was just speculating he didn't really know. Then 48 hours before
the trade, he hints that a 22-24 minute dman that wasn't sexy, but very
good defensively might be coming to Edmonton. He says no more, but
again he tells us that Hall might move and that he gets you the most, but
the market is not what Oiler fans think. I didn't connect the two
statements.</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: large;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #262626;">24 hours before the trade, Marc Spector guests on Bob Stauffer's Show, Oilers Now and he plays a guessing game as Marc Spector demands that he tell fans who
this player is, as Bob Stauffer gives more clues. We all guess on
twitter and a few fans and Spector guess -Adam Larsson. Bob Stauffer than
gives the money question to Spector "Would you trade Hall for
him?" My assumption is that he was trying to throw Spector a curve
to lead him off track, in reality he was preparing the fans for a trade that he
knew was coming. </span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: large;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #262626;">When the trade happens, fans react with understandable
anger. I couldn't belief it myself but as my anger wore off, and
I read the well connected media like Bob Mackenzie, </span><span style="color: #262626;">Elliott Friedman, Ryan Rishaug, and Pierre Lebrun
all saying the same thing. None of which had any reason
to blow sunshine up Oilers fans butts, and all having more connections
than just Chiarelli. Their message, Oiler fans don't like it, but
that was the market for a right handed dman, and Chiarelli really had no choice but
to make it.</span></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: large;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #262626;">Ultimately I always knew they were correct but
like all Oiler fans really didn't want to believe it. </span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: large;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #262626;">Which really comes back to our title: The fans have
been crying for bold for years, it's become a taunt, a mocking way of
referring to the 10 years of mismanagement but I think we all lost sight of what
that actually means.</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: large;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #262626;">Bold: "Fearless and daring, courageous, not
hesitating in the fear of rebuff"</span></b><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: large;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #262626;">Chiarelli's job is not to please us with every transaction, it
is to turn this franchise around and build a winner. He cannot
worry about rebuff and being unpopular! </span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
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<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #262626;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: large;">Ultimately bold can go in two directions. If the moves he makes
fail and the Oilers fall further into oblivion, bold turns into stupid and
he won't be here. If on the other hand, bold turns into winning,
bold turns into genius. We all hope that bold Journey into
greatness starts Oct 12th.</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "times"; font-size: 16.0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
Oilfanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02868706219353759378noreply@blogger.com5